Collapse of Agency or Evolution of Learning? A Foresight Study of Adolescents’ Cognitive Independence in the Age of Artificial Intelligence Using System Dynamics
Keywords:
Artificial intelligence, cognitive agency, system dynamics, futures studies, adolescent psychology, critical thinkingAbstract
This study aimed to analyze the long-term effects of artificial intelligence integration into learning processes on adolescents’ agency and cognitive independence and to explore potential future trajectories of cognitive development or decline. This qualitative study employed a system dynamics approach. The system boundaries were defined around adolescents’ cognitive interactions with AI-based educational technologies. Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) were used to model the relationships among key variables, including AI usage, mental effort, critical thinking, response speed, and cognitive agency. Model validity was assessed through structure verification, extreme-condition testing, and alignment with established theories of developmental and educational psychology. The model identified two major reinforcing feedback loops. The first, termed the “Adaptive Decline Loop” (R1), demonstrated that excessive dependence on AI increases response efficiency while reducing mental effort, weakening critical thinking skills and cognitive agency, and subsequently increasing reliance on AI. The second, termed the “Symbiotic Evolution Loop” (R2), indicated that strategic use of AI as a cognitive scaffold enhances critical thinking, strengthens cognitive agency, and promotes deeper learning. Foresight analysis further suggested that, in the absence of effective educational interventions, a substantial cognitive divide may emerge by 2030 between passive AI consumers and strategic AI users. The findings suggest that the cognitive consequences of artificial intelligence are determined less by the technology itself and more by the structure of human–AI interaction. Educational systems that emphasize process-oriented assessment, metacognitive literacy, and strategically delayed feedback can mitigate the erosion of cognitive agency and foster adolescents’ intellectual autonomy in the AI era.
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